Tue Sept 8th 2009

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.6N 30.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB

Well we now have Hurricane Fred. Since 5pm there has only been a 3MB Drop in pressure and winds have come up to 75mph, Fred is now a Cat-1 on the Saffir Simpson scale. Good news is that Fred has now started to make his turn to the NW and speed is decreeing, now at 12mph from 14 at 5pm. I can now say I feel up to 50% right that Fred will not effect anything but shipping lanes.


Now as I said early in the day, The GOM. there is a area to bare watching in the bay of campeche, that the GFS has hit on in the last 2 runs GFS that has been just a tad worried. 96hrs and 172hrs out. I know I have said before that models are not any good that far out, but for this GFS to hit on these 2 areas on back to back runs, has me kind of well to be honest, scratching my head a little. Going to have to wait and see how this all plays out as the week goes by, that's for sure. The poor people in the gulf do not need a storm of any kind down there for sure.


Other than this it is the same old thing. So please just keep up with what is going on with Fred and check with your local NWS for watches and warnings that may be in your area.

Most of all remember
Look ahead or you could be dead.

John

Echo of Thunder Weather
www.echoofthunder.com

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.1N 29.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB

Full story can be found at FRED

Well sorry that I am so late in today's posts. crazy day here but what's new.



As you can see TS Fred is still with us moving to the west at west at 14MPH
Fred is expected to become a hurricane soon, As I stated Fred is moving to the west but should be making a gradual turn to the west-northwest then northwest in the next couple of days according to the NHC FULL 11:00am report Going blind here to be honest. I have not been able to access any models today. Guess maybe the net is busy.
but from what I have seen of Fred from the satellites today I do look for this turn later on today or tonight.

As of this post Fred's winds are now at 65MPH sustained with higher gusts.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...11.9N 28.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB

NHC still has no floater up on Fred as of yet. This is due to it being so far out still. Just 345 miles south west of the southern most cape Verde Islands. I hope later in the day to be able to look into the GFS just to see what is what with Fred. Also also for later in the week in the GOM? that's right The Gulf of Mexico.


Now we have a Floater on Fred.

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John

Echo Of Thunder Weather