What more can happen? thank god no cows flying, Not yet anyways. Very windy I would say here in redbank NJ winds are gusting right now near 40mph, 25 to 30 sustained
as for fred please refer to NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
GREAT! Just was woke up by by a notice from the SPC in Normal Oka
Meso out for NU AND DE for a possible tornado watch to be issued,
MESO
Fred still hanging on.
000
WTNT32 KNHC 110237
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
1100 PM AST THU SEP 10 2009
...FRED WEAKENS AND SLOWS DOWN A LITTLE MORE...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.1 WEST OR ABOUT 740 MILES...
1190 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. FRED IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FRED IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND FRED SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
STORM ON FRIDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.4N 35.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 3 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Still going to be interesting to see how all this plays out with fred. I have talked with some other people tonight of this storm and what it could do. Most thing there will be a slim chance for Fred once he gets out of the shear and into a better area to reform into anything. Gonna have to wait and see however. I still do not trust it.
Now for the big news. Yellow Circle in the GOM!!
2. A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE TEXAS COAST IS INTERACTING WITH A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF
COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TO LOUISIANA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.
Next 48hrs is gonna be the key with this. As I said earlier in the week the GFS said of this and could take it into Ala and or Fla. Some forecast it to move more to the NE. again wait and see, but my gut is saying more to the north if anything.
Now for the NE. 2 words Wet and windy.
1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES IN THE REGION AND HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
Some have called this NONTROPICAL some Say NOR'ESTER I call it a More Pisser than anything. this is that same system that dumped all the rain in NC and Va earlier in the week. the NWS In Mount Holly NJ
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2009
...HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
.LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL DRIFT TOWARD THE
DELAWARE/NEW JERSEY COAST BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN AS
IT HEADS NORTH. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
DEZ001-NJZ015-PAZ067>071-111100-
/O.CON.KPHI.FF.A.0012.000000T0000Z-090911T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NEW CASTLE-MERCER-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...TRENTON...WEST CHESTER...
NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2009
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
* PORTIONS OF NORTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN
NORTHERN DELAWARE...NEW CASTLE. IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...
MERCER. IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...BUCKS...CHESTER...
DELAWARE...MONTGOMERY AND PHILADELPHIA.
* THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
* RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BECOME
HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
* THE HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE FLOODING ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. RAINFALL RATES MAY BE
QUITE HIGH AT SOME LOCATIONS...RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. IF YOU LIVE IN A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO
FLASH FLOODING...BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS
ISSUED. IF YOU OBSERVE RAPIDLY RISING WATER...MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN
YOU THINK IT IS.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED
and
Gale Warning
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1253 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY
ANZ452>455-110915-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
1253 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING...
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT...BECOMING
E AND DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK. SEAS 10 TO 15
FT. RAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS.
.FRI...E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT...BECOMING S AND DIMINISHING TO 10 TO
15 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT...SUBSIDING TO 5 TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
A CHANCE OF RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING SW. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. A
CHANCE OF RAIN.
.SAT...N WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
.SUN...N WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.MON...NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.TUE...N WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.
$$
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1253 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY
ANZ431-110915-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
1253 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING...
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS AROUND 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT...BECOMING E
AND DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
RAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS.
.FRI...E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...BECOMING SE AND DIMINISHING TO AROUND
10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT...SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT. A CHANCE OF RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING SW. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. A
CHANCE OF RAIN.
.SAT...N WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.
.SUN...N WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS AROUND 1 FT.
.MON...NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.
.TUE...N WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.
WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.
$$
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1253 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY
ANZ450-451-110915-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
1253 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. SEAS 10
TO 15 FT. RAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS.
.FRI...E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT...DIMINISHING TO
10 TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT...SUBSIDING TO 8 TO
11 FT. RAIN LIKELY.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT...SUBSIDING TO 4 TO
6 FT. A CHANCE OF RAIN.
.SAT...NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
.SUN...N WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.MON...NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.TUE...N WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.
$$
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1253 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009
ANZ431-452>455-110900-
/O.EXT.KPHI.GL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-090911T0900Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
1253 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009
...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING...
THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE VIRGINIA CAPES EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL DRIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK.
A STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PREDAWN HOURS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD RANGE FROM 25 TO 30
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO
15 FEET...EXCEPT 4 TO 7 FEET OVER THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A GALE WARNING MEANS THAT WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND A PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSEL. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE REMAIN IN
PORT.
&&
$$
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1253 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009
ANZ450-451-110900-
/O.EXT.KPHI.GL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-090911T1200Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
1253 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009
...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE VIRGINIA CAPES EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL DRIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK.
A STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 FEET.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A GALE WARNING MEANS THAT WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND A PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSEL. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE REMAIN IN
PORT.
and
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
750 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2009
MDZ025-110800-
/O.EXT.KAKQ.SU.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-090911T0600Z/
/O.CON.KAKQ.CF.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-090911T0600Z/
/O.CON.KAKQ.CF.S.0027.090911T0600Z-090912T0000Z/
MARYLAND BEACHES-
750 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2009
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
FRIDAY...
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY.
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... ...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM
EDT FRIDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
STRONG...GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES CONTINUE WITH WATER LEVELS
1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THESE DEPARTURES MAY RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.
HERE ARE THE TIMES OF TONIGHTS HIGH TIDES: OCEAN CITY...12:22 AM.
IN ADDITION...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE OCEAN CITY BEACHES. ALSO...WAVES IN THE
SURF ZONE CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 7 TO 9 FEET...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE HIGH SURF WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED
BEACH EROSION.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MEANS WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VICINITY OF JETTIES...PIERS AND SANDBARS. RIP CURRENTS ARE
LIFE-THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. BE ESPECIALLY
CAUTIOUS WITH OUTGOING TIDES WHICH IMPROVE RIP CURRENT FORMATION.
ALL BEACH GOERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF INHERENT DANGERS WHEN
ENTERING THE SURF INCLUDING SWIFT LONGSHORE CURRENTS...POUNDING
SHORE BREAK AND SHALLOW SAND BARS.
RIP CURRENTS ARE STRONG...NARROW CHANNELS OF WATER THAT FLOW OUT
TO SEA. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...REMAIN CALM. TRY
TO SWIM ON A COURSE THAT IS PARALLEL TO THE BEACH UNTIL YOU GET
AWAY FROM THE RIP...THEN SWIM AT AN ANGLE IN TO SHORE. DO NOT TRY
TO SWIM BACK TO SHORE DIRECTLY AGAINST THE RIP...SINCE IT CAN
EXHAUST AND EVEN KILL THE STRONGEST SWIMMER.
ALWAYS HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND
SIGNS POSTED NEAR BEACH ACCESS POINTS AND LIFEGUARD STATIONS.
Needless to say I do not think that I will be doing any boating in the next day or so.
But all joking aside here. Be it a Nor'easter or a non tropical system it is still going to make this slick wet and windy for Friday. Also Would not doubt if as this system starts to really fire up which I feel it will do now that the NHC has it back in yellow, Anywhere from DE up into Canada best be on the lookout for some rips, very high surf. Rain and wind. better known as there goes the weekend. Once again.
John
Echo Of Thunder
www.echofthunder.com
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