Sept 10th 2009

000
WTNT32 KNHC 102037
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 PM AST THU SEP 10 2009

...FRED EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.1 WEST OR ABOUT 740 MILES...
1190 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED...A FRED SHOULD MOVE LITTLE DURING THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FRED SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.3N 35.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Full report of Fred. I am still a bit nervous as to the track and that it is foretasted to stall out.


Well Fred weakens a little more. Not as much as I thought that it would though.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.8N 35.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB

This is what get's me. The track.



As you see, it's heading right for the east coast of the USA. True the NHC is saying in here 11:00am Discussion it will turn into a remnant low, But what if?
The world is full of what ifs. Below is the full discussion.

000
WTNT42 KNHC 101435
TCDAT2
HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
1100 AM AST THU SEP 10 2009

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT FRED STILL HAS AN EYE
SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT AS DISTINCT AS
IT WAS YESTERDAY. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BIT
ELONGATED DUE TO SOUTHERLY SHEAR THAT IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE
HURRICANE. T-NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS. BECAUSE FRED IS HEADING TOWARD A HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG SHEAR AND COOL WATERS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING. FRED COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OF EVEN EARLIER. THIS IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE AT 96
HOURS. BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS MAINTAIN FRED AS STRONG
TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE BUT WITH SUCH PREVAILING HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT...THIS IS NOT REALISTIC.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND FRED
IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND DRIFT NORTHWARD OR MOST LIKELY IT WILL
MEANDER FOR TWO OR THREE DAYS. BY THEN...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF FRED...FORCING THE CYCLONE TO TAKE A MORE
WEST-NORTHWEST PATH AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. MOST OF
THE TRACK GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY THE GLOBAL GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE
FORECASTING THE WESTWARD BEND. BY THEN...GIVEN THE PREVAILING
STRONG SHEAR FRED IS EXPECTED TO BE NO MORE THAN A WEAK DISTURBANCE
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 16.8N 35.1W 85 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 17.5N 35.4W 75 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 18.0N 35.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 18.2N 35.2W 55 KT
48HR VT 12/1200Z 18.6N 34.8W 45 KT
72HR VT 13/1200Z 20.5N 35.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 14/1200Z 22.0N 38.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 15/1200Z 24.0N 42.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

As you see by 120hrs they call Fred a Remnant low. But with the last 2 storms that had come up this high, Bill and Danny. I have to really wonder if it will be.

Going to be watching Bill no matter. Also too we really do not need any rain from what will be left of Fred. Had enough so far this year.

John
Echo Of Thunder Weather.