9/11/09

Flash Flood Adv, please refer to,Mount Holly/Phil NWS


What more can happen? thank god no cows flying, Not yet anyways. Very windy I would say here in redbank NJ winds are gusting right now near 40mph, 25 to 30 sustained

as for fred please refer to NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER


GREAT! Just was woke up by by a notice from the SPC in Normal Oka

Meso out for NU AND DE for a possible tornado watch to be issued,

MESO


Fred still hanging on.

000
WTNT32 KNHC 110237
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
1100 PM AST THU SEP 10 2009

...FRED WEAKENS AND SLOWS DOWN A LITTLE MORE...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.1 WEST OR ABOUT 740 MILES...
1190 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. FRED IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FRED IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND FRED SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
STORM ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.4N 35.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 3 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Still going to be interesting to see how all this plays out with fred. I have talked with some other people tonight of this storm and what it could do. Most thing there will be a slim chance for Fred once he gets out of the shear and into a better area to reform into anything. Gonna have to wait and see however. I still do not trust it.


Now for the big news. Yellow Circle in the GOM!!


2. A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE TEXAS COAST IS INTERACTING WITH A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF
COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TO LOUISIANA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

Next 48hrs is gonna be the key with this. As I said earlier in the week the GFS said of this and could take it into Ala and or Fla. Some forecast it to move more to the NE. again wait and see, but my gut is saying more to the north if anything.

Now for the NE. 2 words Wet and windy.


1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES IN THE REGION AND HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

Some have called this NONTROPICAL some Say NOR'ESTER I call it a More Pisser than anything. this is that same system that dumped all the rain in NC and Va earlier in the week. the NWS In Mount Holly NJ

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2009

...HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

.LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL DRIFT TOWARD THE
DELAWARE/NEW JERSEY COAST BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN AS
IT HEADS NORTH. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

DEZ001-NJZ015-PAZ067>071-111100-
/O.CON.KPHI.FF.A.0012.000000T0000Z-090911T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NEW CASTLE-MERCER-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...TRENTON...WEST CHESTER...
NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN
NORTHERN DELAWARE...NEW CASTLE. IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...
MERCER. IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...BUCKS...CHESTER...
DELAWARE...MONTGOMERY AND PHILADELPHIA.

* THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

* RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BECOME
HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* THE HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE FLOODING ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. RAINFALL RATES MAY BE
QUITE HIGH AT SOME LOCATIONS...RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. IF YOU LIVE IN A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO
FLASH FLOODING...BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS
ISSUED. IF YOU OBSERVE RAPIDLY RISING WATER...MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IMMEDIATELY.

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN
YOU THINK IT IS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED


and


Gale Warning

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1253 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY

ANZ452>455-110915-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
1253 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT...BECOMING
E AND DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK. SEAS 10 TO 15
FT. RAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS.
.FRI...E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT...BECOMING S AND DIMINISHING TO 10 TO
15 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT...SUBSIDING TO 5 TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
A CHANCE OF RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING SW. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. A
CHANCE OF RAIN.
.SAT...N WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
.SUN...N WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.MON...NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.TUE...N WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.

$$

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1253 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY

ANZ431-110915-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
1253 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS AROUND 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT...BECOMING E
AND DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
RAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS.
.FRI...E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...BECOMING SE AND DIMINISHING TO AROUND
10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT...SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT. A CHANCE OF RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING SW. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. A
CHANCE OF RAIN.
.SAT...N WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.
.SUN...N WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS AROUND 1 FT.
.MON...NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.
.TUE...N WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.

WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.

$$

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1253 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY

ANZ450-451-110915-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
1253 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. SEAS 10
TO 15 FT. RAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS.
.FRI...E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT...DIMINISHING TO
10 TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT...SUBSIDING TO 8 TO
11 FT. RAIN LIKELY.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT...SUBSIDING TO 4 TO
6 FT. A CHANCE OF RAIN.
.SAT...NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
.SUN...N WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.MON...NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.TUE...N WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.

$$

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1253 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009

ANZ431-452>455-110900-
/O.EXT.KPHI.GL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-090911T0900Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
1253 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING...

THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE VIRGINIA CAPES EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL DRIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK.

A STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PREDAWN HOURS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD RANGE FROM 25 TO 30
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO
15 FEET...EXCEPT 4 TO 7 FEET OVER THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS THAT WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND A PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSEL. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE REMAIN IN
PORT.

&&

$$

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1253 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009

ANZ450-451-110900-
/O.EXT.KPHI.GL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-090911T1200Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
1253 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE VIRGINIA CAPES EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL DRIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK.

A STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS THAT WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND A PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSEL. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE REMAIN IN
PORT.

and

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
750 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2009

MDZ025-110800-
/O.EXT.KAKQ.SU.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-090911T0600Z/
/O.CON.KAKQ.CF.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-090911T0600Z/
/O.CON.KAKQ.CF.S.0027.090911T0600Z-090912T0000Z/
MARYLAND BEACHES-
750 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2009

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY.

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... ...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM
EDT FRIDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
STRONG...GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH TONIGHT.

AS A RESULT...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES CONTINUE WITH WATER LEVELS
1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THESE DEPARTURES MAY RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

HERE ARE THE TIMES OF TONIGHTS HIGH TIDES: OCEAN CITY...12:22 AM.

IN ADDITION...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE OCEAN CITY BEACHES. ALSO...WAVES IN THE
SURF ZONE CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 7 TO 9 FEET...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE HIGH SURF WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED
BEACH EROSION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MEANS WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VICINITY OF JETTIES...PIERS AND SANDBARS. RIP CURRENTS ARE
LIFE-THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. BE ESPECIALLY
CAUTIOUS WITH OUTGOING TIDES WHICH IMPROVE RIP CURRENT FORMATION.
ALL BEACH GOERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF INHERENT DANGERS WHEN
ENTERING THE SURF INCLUDING SWIFT LONGSHORE CURRENTS...POUNDING
SHORE BREAK AND SHALLOW SAND BARS.

RIP CURRENTS ARE STRONG...NARROW CHANNELS OF WATER THAT FLOW OUT
TO SEA. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...REMAIN CALM. TRY
TO SWIM ON A COURSE THAT IS PARALLEL TO THE BEACH UNTIL YOU GET
AWAY FROM THE RIP...THEN SWIM AT AN ANGLE IN TO SHORE. DO NOT TRY
TO SWIM BACK TO SHORE DIRECTLY AGAINST THE RIP...SINCE IT CAN
EXHAUST AND EVEN KILL THE STRONGEST SWIMMER.

ALWAYS HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND
SIGNS POSTED NEAR BEACH ACCESS POINTS AND LIFEGUARD STATIONS.

Needless to say I do not think that I will be doing any boating in the next day or so.

But all joking aside here. Be it a Nor'easter or a non tropical system it is still going to make this slick wet and windy for Friday. Also Would not doubt if as this system starts to really fire up which I feel it will do now that the NHC has it back in yellow, Anywhere from DE up into Canada best be on the lookout for some rips, very high surf. Rain and wind. better known as there goes the weekend. Once again.

John

Echo Of Thunder

www.echofthunder.com

Sept 10th 2009

000
WTNT32 KNHC 102037
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 PM AST THU SEP 10 2009

...FRED EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.1 WEST OR ABOUT 740 MILES...
1190 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED...A FRED SHOULD MOVE LITTLE DURING THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FRED SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.3N 35.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Full report of Fred. I am still a bit nervous as to the track and that it is foretasted to stall out.


Well Fred weakens a little more. Not as much as I thought that it would though.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.8N 35.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB

This is what get's me. The track.



As you see, it's heading right for the east coast of the USA. True the NHC is saying in here 11:00am Discussion it will turn into a remnant low, But what if?
The world is full of what ifs. Below is the full discussion.

000
WTNT42 KNHC 101435
TCDAT2
HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
1100 AM AST THU SEP 10 2009

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT FRED STILL HAS AN EYE
SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT AS DISTINCT AS
IT WAS YESTERDAY. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BIT
ELONGATED DUE TO SOUTHERLY SHEAR THAT IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE
HURRICANE. T-NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS. BECAUSE FRED IS HEADING TOWARD A HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG SHEAR AND COOL WATERS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING. FRED COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OF EVEN EARLIER. THIS IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE AT 96
HOURS. BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS MAINTAIN FRED AS STRONG
TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE BUT WITH SUCH PREVAILING HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT...THIS IS NOT REALISTIC.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND FRED
IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND DRIFT NORTHWARD OR MOST LIKELY IT WILL
MEANDER FOR TWO OR THREE DAYS. BY THEN...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF FRED...FORCING THE CYCLONE TO TAKE A MORE
WEST-NORTHWEST PATH AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. MOST OF
THE TRACK GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY THE GLOBAL GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE
FORECASTING THE WESTWARD BEND. BY THEN...GIVEN THE PREVAILING
STRONG SHEAR FRED IS EXPECTED TO BE NO MORE THAN A WEAK DISTURBANCE
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 16.8N 35.1W 85 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 17.5N 35.4W 75 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 18.0N 35.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 18.2N 35.2W 55 KT
48HR VT 12/1200Z 18.6N 34.8W 45 KT
72HR VT 13/1200Z 20.5N 35.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 14/1200Z 22.0N 38.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 15/1200Z 24.0N 42.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

As you see by 120hrs they call Fred a Remnant low. But with the last 2 storms that had come up this high, Bill and Danny. I have to really wonder if it will be.

Going to be watching Bill no matter. Also too we really do not need any rain from what will be left of Fred. Had enough so far this year.

John
Echo Of Thunder Weather.

Sept 9th 2009

Fred gets a little more weaker.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.3N 33.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB
at this rate I would day there is nothing to worry about but to worry. Thing is this. Looking at the 5 day track from the NHC.




as you see Fred decides to take a little turn. That is after it becomes a TD. No I guess now I am having to bring down my percentage to 45% sure it will not effect and.

John
Echo Of Thunder Weather




Fred Weakens just a little but still a major hurricane.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.8N 33.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB

winds have come down only 5mph and pressure is up by 2 points.
a not really surprised, however that Fred weaken. It was already in cool water to start with.
I have a feeling now that he has weakened this is just the start of the big drop off of this storm, but time will tell.

John
Echo Of Thunder Weather.
moving a little more to the NW still at 13mph though.
Fred Becomes the 2nd Major hurricane this season!

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.9N 32.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB

Pressure has dropped even more since 5am 12 points, forward speed also has slowed to 13mph but the winds are now up to 120MPH with higher guests. This Puts Fred at a Cat-3 but thank god NO THREAT TO LAND!!

Fred is expected to weaken tomorrow which I agree with as it will be moving into cooler waters.

for more info on Fred please go to THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

John

ECHO OF THUNDER WEATHER


well Fred really picked up during the night, as of 5am winds are now 105MPH

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.2N 31.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB

Fred has made a little more of a turn to the NW now from 11:00pm last nite and pressure has dropped even more 17 points to 970MB.
now I feel at 90% of no worries at all of Fred at all.

Still will be worth watching however since winds are at 105. .

Now for what I was saying yesterday of the GFS and the GOM.
Today the models have put a little something into the ALA Fla are later in the week. not sure what is going on here if it was a "ghost" or what. will post later in the day as more runs happen.

sorry this is such a short post all. another crazy day

John

Echo Of Thunder weather

www.echoofthunder.com

Tue Sept 8th 2009

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.6N 30.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB

Well we now have Hurricane Fred. Since 5pm there has only been a 3MB Drop in pressure and winds have come up to 75mph, Fred is now a Cat-1 on the Saffir Simpson scale. Good news is that Fred has now started to make his turn to the NW and speed is decreeing, now at 12mph from 14 at 5pm. I can now say I feel up to 50% right that Fred will not effect anything but shipping lanes.


Now as I said early in the day, The GOM. there is a area to bare watching in the bay of campeche, that the GFS has hit on in the last 2 runs GFS that has been just a tad worried. 96hrs and 172hrs out. I know I have said before that models are not any good that far out, but for this GFS to hit on these 2 areas on back to back runs, has me kind of well to be honest, scratching my head a little. Going to have to wait and see how this all plays out as the week goes by, that's for sure. The poor people in the gulf do not need a storm of any kind down there for sure.


Other than this it is the same old thing. So please just keep up with what is going on with Fred and check with your local NWS for watches and warnings that may be in your area.

Most of all remember
Look ahead or you could be dead.

John

Echo of Thunder Weather
www.echoofthunder.com

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.1N 29.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB

Full story can be found at FRED

Well sorry that I am so late in today's posts. crazy day here but what's new.



As you can see TS Fred is still with us moving to the west at west at 14MPH
Fred is expected to become a hurricane soon, As I stated Fred is moving to the west but should be making a gradual turn to the west-northwest then northwest in the next couple of days according to the NHC FULL 11:00am report Going blind here to be honest. I have not been able to access any models today. Guess maybe the net is busy.
but from what I have seen of Fred from the satellites today I do look for this turn later on today or tonight.

As of this post Fred's winds are now at 65MPH sustained with higher gusts.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...11.9N 28.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB

NHC still has no floater up on Fred as of yet. This is due to it being so far out still. Just 345 miles south west of the southern most cape Verde Islands. I hope later in the day to be able to look into the GFS just to see what is what with Fred. Also also for later in the week in the GOM? that's right The Gulf of Mexico.


Now we have a Floater on Fred.

Java must be enabled for radar loops to display.



In Netscape:

Select: Edit -> Preferences -> Advanced


Check "Enable Java" and "Enable Javascript"



In Internet Explorer

Select: Tools -> Internet Options -> Security tab

Select the Internet zone and set the Security level for the zone to "Medium"






You may need to restart your browser after making these changes.

John

Echo Of Thunder Weather

We Got Fred

Well as of 11:00PM Edt on Monday the 7th of Sept 2009 we now have our 7th name storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season.



Sorry the NHC has no floater as of yet. As you can see from the shot above, Fred is now off shore form Africa moving to the West at 15MPH The NHC is calling for a turn to the west-northwest then to the northwest in the next couple of days with a slight decrease in forward speed. Pretty much what the models had said, but I am still not 100% sure of all this, not by a long shot. Below is the 11:00pm Adv for TS Fred

TROPICAL STORM FRED

Sept 7 2009

Well first off I want to wish everyone a very happy Labor day! Now on to the news.

we have 96L which is expected to become a TD shortly. After looking at the models and quikscat this morning I am seeing some good rotation in this wave which is about 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. As we all know all too well it is too soon to make any calls as to if or when 96L will effect anything.



But with the speed that 96L is moving. Near 20MPH at this post. I am feeling that this system has a very good chance to become Fred. Thing is 96L Is going though a mind field so to say. It could just get grabbed up and pushed north just like 95L was earlier in the week. What I am stating here today is this. It's a wait and see game this early to really know. But from what I do see from the GFS it does take a turn to the North later in the week. Then again it is too early to know for sure.

I will be watching this very very closely and any updates I will be posting.

Have a great day everyone and remember
Look ahead or you could be dead

---

2:00pm from the NHC

SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
MAY BE FORMING. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES WOULD BE
INITIATED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

---

well as of 3:45pm EDT Sept 7th 2009 we now have TD-07 aka 96L

---

Well TD-7 is born in the far eastern Atl.
here is Adv #1

some models are saying it will not go past 35W or so. but as I have stressed before. Wait and see. too early yet for sure to call this one a fish. I have read so many others already calling it that when it's not. TD-7 has already effected the Cape Verde Islands so technically it's not a fish. A fish is a storm that never effects land at all.
John
Echo Of Thunder Weather

invest 92 and 93L

Well we have a couple of invests today. the main one is 92L just east of the leeward Islands. I have added the floater to 92L on my site www.echoofthunder.com

as for 93L? not even gonna bother really talking of it. other than should be a dead duck soon, giving mexico some rain.

Other than that still studying for my ham ticket. Sent a E mail out today on all that good stuff so we will see.

studying

wow how soon we forget. Studying to get my ham radio ticket again after 10yrs out of it all. how soon we forget the rules and regs and all that good stuff.

Raining here again. started out to be nice but oh well. Just happy Bill has passed me by but for all the damned flies. very bad today

Radar shot

Well I was cruising around looking at the radars and cam across Portland Maine. you can see Hurricane Bill just coming into the loop

updated

Well long time coming, Just finished updating www.echoofthunder.com Echo Of Thunder Weather. I have added a couple of new model links and also a New Jersey Beach Cam link. Along with Imapweather.com Also a note was added that as of Nov 1st EOTW will drop the forum due to not active. Drop on by and take a look, and remember click on the google ads. every penny helps in keeping this site going. thanks

The Season

Well again sorry for not posting this sooner. Google and there passwords, You now have to go through a act of God to get it. what fun that was. NOT!.

Well after weeks of waiting we finally got Ana, was nothing really too it. Wave then a TD then TS then TD then Wave then a TD again then Poof. Reminded me a little of Fay of last season. Then we had Bill form off the Cape Vedi's. As he moved across the atl he became a Major cane, Top winds of 135MPH, and of this post still has not made any land fall, and has winds now of 100MPH, More on Bill tomorrow. We also had Claudette form just off Tampa Fla. Top winds near 40MPH when she made landfall in the panhandle of Fla. We did have one no name TD make land fall in Ala but was more of a over sized thunderstorm than anything.

Other than this, it's been good here in the thunderdome. Trying to get this new PC still set up the way that I want. Saving up for the flat screen monitor. Also studying to get my ticket again, "Ham Radio" Other than that it's status quo.

Get my internet back and what happend? my computer imploads lol. took me all this time to get up enough money to get another one. oh well whats money? lol

anyways a lot has been happening. Operation Vortex 2 is over with now, with only 1 tornado. it was a good one too. Barometer bob from Hurricanehollow.org was there for the 1st week and all he saw was some large hail. Hurricane season has been going on now since June 1st with only 1 depression and no named storms yet, can you believe it.
the least anount of storms was in 1983 with 4 named storms. so maybe just maybe.

There is the left overs of one traopical wave that I have been watching though. 97L's
It has turned into a ULL "Upper level Low" right now it is off the NC coast moving up my way slowly. Looked at the GFS models about 11:00pm edt and it put it into long island Thursday nite into Friday. looked to be about a 1008MB low. so could just be interesting at that. have to wait and see. Locals are calling for heavy rain thusday night here on the NJ shore. Myself I feel as I feel as it is just going to be a big rain maker for us. maybe a little wind. nothing bad, under 20MPH Im sure and if that.

well until next time. be safe and remember
Look ahead or be dead.

Echo
Echoofthunder.com

My net is back

well I have my internet back thank goodness. I see I have really been missing a lot of bad weather. so sorry that I could not do any postings of it. But I am back and echo of thunder weather will be updated with any serever weather watches as needed. this will also enclude any Hurricane watches and or warnings, since the season will be starting on June 1st.

Speaking of the weather haha. I have added a link straight to any strom watches on the site. they will be in red. Still on Twitter as well.

Internet sucks

well I am here for a bit. been away for a week due to net problems as I said in my last post. well the last week has been a wild one weather wise.

Rain Rain RAIN! The southern United States has been soaked the last week. Storms have been training accross the areas,
for the last week, Some of these storms have been Server as well. McComb Ms reported a wind gust of 71MPH back on 3/26/09
There was a EF3 Tornado also on that day in Mageee Ms. Mississippi was not the only state to be hit. Tornados had been
reported from Okalahoma to North Carolina. Serious Flooding in parts of Mississippi Alabama and Florida. One good thing of all this, it that the Drought in the Atlanta Metro Area is over for the firt time in 3 years. The south is not the only weather maker of late. There is the Red River in Fargo ND. Crested on Sunday 3/28/09 at 40.83 inches above flood stage. Also blizzards and snow in that area. Old man winter still has a grip in that area. On a personal note, this has to be the craziest spring that I have seen in a long time. From what I have been seeing though, it looks to me as maybe this Thrusday 4/2/2009 could be another wild weather day in the south. As some of you may know. I am having a big problem with my internet. Limited time on my ISP, so this is why some of this post is out dated or not complete as it should be.
I hope to have my internet back as soon as I can, so please bare with me.

ISP sucks

well my ISP sucks. day before yesterday I found out that they are kicking the price up all but triple! To hell if I am gonna pay almost $50 am month for dial up!!!
Right now I am limited to just 10 hours a month for free. So I hate to say it but updates here will be very limited. Trying to get with some of the other Admin at echoofthunder.com to help with updates there but to no availe. Ashame too. we just had our 5000 hit in the last 4 months too.

I hope to have something before the start of hurricane season June 1st. so keep your fingers legs and toes crossed for me. If not I do not know what I am gonna do.

It's alive

Yes my death was not true I am alive. That cold was really a touch and I know I can not spell it right pneumonia Thank god for a spell check lol. But I am much better now. Did a lot of sleeping yesterday and today though. When I checked this morning at the SPC the are saying that Monday maybe a pretty good outbreak. Talked to bob a little of this tonight over at HH and he said it will all depend on the Thoth and the warm air out of the gulf which I already knew. Loved to have seen his face when I asked of the high pressure area though? From what I seen today I think it will still be in place by Sunday and Monday. All this WX will move to the NE not eastward as bob said. Oh well I do love this time of year. Spring is like a poker game. you never know what your gonna get until your hand is dealt to ya.

As you can see I have added my Twitter here, so you can add me to that too. that is if anyone ever reads this, lol. I would hate to think I am just doing this to keep my typing skills up.

Put up my 2009 Hurricane prediction up in the forum www.echoofthunder.com/aef under 2009 hurricanes. Just will have to wait and see. I will revise most likely Late July or early Aug if needed. For now I am sticking to it.

Well talked enough. Time I talk to my pillow some. I will have to get up fairly early tomarrow anyways. going to Walmart. Gonna get some headphones or some decent speakers for this PC. Most likely a headset though. who knows though. Oh well I will STHU and go to bed.

Laters TTYL

woke up with

Oh man This morning I woke up feeling like you know what dried in the NJ Sun. A bad cold. Coughing and sneezing what little brains I have out all over the place. Hot one min cold the next. And this is just day one. They say the 3 day is the worst. Gee something to look forwarn too lol. Nose is running so bad I cant catch it.

Boring Saturday.

It was such a boring day here I almost didnt even post here. Scanned around all the weather sites and blogs and Zippo. Another fine day in the US other than some flooding in ILL due to snow melt and the rains they have had. Nothing serever for the last couple of days and nothing comming up from what I have seen. Good Mother Nature did take that chill pill. things was getting out of hand there a bit.

80 days to go

wow just 80 days and counting until the start of the 2009 hurricane season. From what I have seen of what has been happening in the southern hem, it will be a very long and busy season this year. I still feel as it will start early too. If you remmeber I said a few weeks ago of something that I read of how some thing that the effects of the moon and tides also effect hurricanes. Well we will have a new moon on the 24th of May 2009. Start of the season is June 1st 2009. so that is 1 week. They said that if one does form, it should be a day or so after the new moon. Also too The Old Famers Alamanac said too that South Fla may have a Early TS. I wonder if these two things will hold up? But what I really would like is to be a fly on the wall down at the National Hurricane Center about that time to see what they think.

Speaking of that. The Natinal Weather Service will be using Google Maps soon for there radars! Wow that will be great. Then they will be able to really pin point the area storm.

long last few days

Well it has been a long last couple of days for me. Redid my computer room, then today found out that the Data base on the forum at echoofthunder.com had a small error. All fixed and ready to go again I hope. Had to reinstall AVG again too. Gee It's good having but boy oh boy does it slow down the PC.

Noticed that hits have been down the last 2 days on the site. Not happy with that, nor have I had any clicks on on forum or any of the other links. Maybe because here since that last small out break the weather has been so nice. Give and Take I guess.

Well we have the Barometerbob show tonight at 8:00pm EDT on http://www.wrbn.net and also on http://www.echoofthunder.com Should be a great show. I have not looked yet to see just who Bob's guest will be. But I bet for sure it will be a good one. Can not wait!

todays wx

tornado watch number 52 was a buster. Thank goodness. maybe a half a dozen serever thunderstorm warnings issued in both Oklahoma and Kansas. still a meso out on it so I am gonna stay up a little bit longer and see if they do not reissue it, if not a thunder storm watch. Great I just looked and they have even canceled that meso for thunder storms. Oh well at least while I was waiting to see what the weather was gonna do I did something worth while. Put up the new page a couple of weeks early over on www.echoofthunder.com I hope everyone will like it. pretty much the same style just a better layout. Added are 2 RSS files. one from the storm prediction center and the other from the national hurricane center. Kept the NJ radar, but when a hurricane is about to make landfall I can add the effected area to that spot.

yesterdays wx

Well as I said, here is yesterday's report from the SPC 3/8/09 storm reports

Not as bad as it could have been with only 2 hurt. 1 by breaking glass and another in a mobile home. Just goes to say stay away from windows, and mobile homes in a tornado. Right now things are very calm. SPC still says slight chance today but be on gaurd please. Never know when it could pop.

Nasty looking day here on the NJ Shore. Cloudy cool and misty. Perfect for a Monday huh? Snow to my north in NH and Mass, wind adv to my west. I guess old man winter is still wanting to stick around a bit.

what a weather day it was

Wow what a weather day this was. As of 10:51pm EDT All watches have expired or have been canceled. Numorous tornado watches and warnings issued. Same with thunder storm warnings. Last watch issued was a serever thunderstorm watch #51 now canceled.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/090307_rpts.html that is Saturdays report from the SPC. I hate to even go look at todays, even though it is not final as of yet. I will post that in tomarrows blog.

They say all this could last until Tues maybe even Weds. I feel tomarrow is gonna be starting in Tex and Oka. from what I have seen in some of the charts. My feelings are it will start out very slow as mainly some hail and wind. By the time that ULL moves more to the east then Look out Mo. Only my feelings. Have to wait and see.

wild day Mother Nature on PMS

Its a wild day, I think mother nature is on PMS

Had a idea

Here is something I would like to run by everyone here http://www.echoofthunder.com/ews.htm Email me let me know what you think or leave me a comment

TORNADO WARNING

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 522 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2009 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN MARION COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS. * UNTIL 600 PM CST. * AT 518 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GOESSEL...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF NEWTON...MOVING EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES! * LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING INCLUDE... FLORENCE...GOESSEL...MARION...PEABODY.

Serever thunder storms

The SPC in Normal Oka has issued a Server thunderstorm WATCH for Kanasa until 10:OO PM CST tonight http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0045.html
Just things to come. I will be here watching this very close. Temps have been running above normal in that area. so it would not suprise me any if they even had some small tornados in the area as well. the storm prediction center is saying mainly Hail. but that threat is there.

interesting day so far

Things are interesting today. since midnight 17 serever thunder storm warning issued and 1 tornado warning. that was in Co. http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/
Gotta love them spin offs. can not wait to see if it will be confirmed or will be called a dust devil or what.

Meso removed

Well they have removed that meso that they had over northern Mo. Checked the SPC and a couple have hail reports alone with a serever thunderstorm warning. other than that. looks like later on today could be the start of something. temps in Mo have been running higher than normal, and with this front and the area of low pressure they say that will bulid up along it. this should make for a interesting next few days.

Meso is now out

Well the Storm Prediction Center has a Meso out now for Northen Mo. http://tinyurl.com/atmevo
Calling for some hail and maybe adding a watch into it too. Most likely a thunderstorm watch I feel from reading it. Oh well Who needs sleep. will be up for a bit more to see just what happends.

Got to wonder now

Well As I do when I 1st get up I go to the Storm Prediction Center and take a look ahead. Now they have Sunay in slight with monday in serever. Kind of thinking the models I looked at before may have been right after all. Just happy that I am not the one that has to make these calls.

weekend weather

Well now it is all comming together. Looking more like this sunday and monday will be a big weather day in the south, then all moving east tues and maybe weds. I looked at a lot of other models today and tonight and also asked around and found out not all are the same. That is way I was not seeing what the SPC was seeing. Learn something new every day

Fri thru Monday

Well looking at the SPC they now say Friday and Sat are slight with Sunday and Monday Serever in Tx and Ok. From the GFS and NAM I still do not see it happening. Could be but I am seeing this happening more with the GFS, than in the NAM like I did yesterday. But I am running other GFS and NAMS and they are looking more like it should by what the SPC is saying, Have a feeling the one I normally use may not be right anymore or have a problem. So all I can say right now is for all to be very careful this weekend and to monitor your local NWS for updates.

Little something I found on my twitter.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29530066/

same ole thing

1:20am Been watching the GFS and NAM all day. I still do not understand why the SPC is calling for Sunday. I see more of a threat for Monday than anything and more to the east than what they are calling for. Well they are the ones that make the call not me. I will say this though. I will bet that Sunday will be slight by the time the next update is issued at 4am this morning and Monday will be Serever. Gonna have to wait and see though.

Working still on trying to create a new page for hurricane season. problem is the rss files that I want to use. one can be fixed in size and the other since it encludes a satillie pic can not be resized. Going to have to figure out some way I can place it and it not through off the whole site. Maybe will have them both on 1 page and then have them scroll with a mouse over so it will stop. Will try that later on today. Bob over on http://www.hurricanehollow.org did not seem too worried for sunday for some reason. maybe he feels as I do that there will not be much to it. As I said before though. A game of wait and see.

Thunder storms for sunday

Well I just checked the SPC in Norman Oka, and from what they say. This Sunday the 8th could get a little server in Eastern Tx Ark and La. http://tinyurl.com/ysl9xh
Still early yet to know just how big or little it will be. But I do know that the temps will be right. From what I have seen so far this morning the Temps in Texas alone will be in the 80's all week, which at this time of year is prime thunderstrom settings.
Honestly I do not see much for Sunday. Only the start of things. Just looked at the NAM and GFS. The NAM is not showing anything in that area while the GFS is, but not for Sunday but Monday into Tues. From Eastern Texas into La Ark and Ms. This is what I really hate so much, when 2 forcast models do not match up. I will give them both another run later on today and see if there is a match.

When I find out more I will update here and also post on Twitter and Echo Of Thnder Weather. Until then be safe and very careful.

Cold Cold Cold

Bright and sunny day here but bitterly cold. with all the snow on the ground and this bright sun, you best have sun glasses. LOL other than that. it is calm and beautiful. Fla, though is catching the bush fires, around tampa. God they need the rain. well just 90 days left to hurricane season though. Just hope that they don't burn up by then.

Have a funny feeling that this season will be a big one too, starting early and ending late. Keep informed everyone.

site update

Hi all. while I have the time, and the weather has calmed down, I just would like to tell you a few things of Echoofthunder.com

Starting April 15th 2009 Echo Of Thunder will be going into Topical Mode. Gone will be the New Jersey Radar. in will be a NHC Overlay tracking map. Also will be adding a direct feed from The National Hurricane Center. We also will have as we do now our shout out box for everyone to use. Leave a note of what you think and and where you are from. We would love hearing your thoughts on the up comming 2009 Hurricane season.

Also we would love to remind everyone of our Forum which is free for all. So if your not already a memeber Join on up. Regiter.

Have a great day and my all your days be sunny and bright.

John

snow

Nice snow huh? over a foot here on the new jersey shore.

The Snow is here

Well woke up this moring to about 1 half of an inch of snow. now at 7:30pm it is here again big time. the local nws is calling for 10 to 15 inches before it is all said and done. Well we have been very lucky the last few years. I guess it is our time. Saw today that Jackson Tenn has 12.5 inch of the white stuff too. Guess the saying is true. when it snows in the south like that we get dumped on next.

Issue #8

http://www.echoofthunder.com has been updated with the newest tornado watch. but I am a little confused. the SPC still has a watch up that ended at 9am cst.

Issue #7

http://www.echoofthunder.com will be playing NOAA Weather Radio out of Birmingham Ala until this Serever weather threat has passed, then back to normal programs with WNBR.NET
NEW TORNADO WATCH ISSUED FROM NORMAL OKA UNTIL 3:00AM SATURDAY MORNING http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0039.html

Serever thunder storm watch #37 has been allowed to exspire.
TORNADO WATCH 8:00pm CST for parts of Ala Ark Ms and La
See http://www.echoofthunder.com/ for details issue number #38
SPC Has Issued Server Thunderstorm watch #37 http://tinyurl.com/d5qjsy until 3pm centeral tme today. Also I have Booneville Ms's NOAA Weather Radio going on my site http://www.echoofthunder.com/

Lets all hope that it will not be as server as it has in the past week

I will try and keep everyone updated here and on my site and twitter as much as I can but I am having some PC problems again.

http://www.echoofthunder.com/ is now streaming NOAA Weather Radio out of Birmingham Alamama. Also as a post script I have been put under a high wind advy with wind gusts to be near or above 40 mph today. gee what fun.

Issue #6 UPDATE!

reSPC has issued a Server Thunder Storm Watch Effective until 12 am feb 27th

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ #32

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0033.html #33

Fist off I want to say that I am sorry for not posting this sooner. I have had internet problems
2 new Server thunder storm watches have been issued

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0034.html #34

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0035.html #35

Still another 10 or so mins to go with watch #32 end time 12:00am CST
Watch # 33 ends at 2AM CST

#34 and #35 end at 3:00am CST

Please remember to check with your local weather service for updates.

Issue #6

Looks as the wx well start to get a little interesting today. From what I see from the SPC in Norman Ok. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Things just might start popping today. already 2 Mesoscale Discussions are currently in effect as of 11:20am. I will be watching all of this today very closely. If needed I will Have the NOAA Weather Radio from the affected area on http://www.echoofthunder.com/. Then tonight will change back to WRBN.NET for the Barometerbob show at 8:00PM Eastern time

12:40PM The SPC now has dropped one of the mesos. They have also dropped Saturday from Server to slight. Personally I still feel as Saturday will be a wild day. If anything comes up I will post it here and also on Twitter as well as Echo Of Thunder Weather.

So far today there has only been isolated server thunderstorms with some hail reports comming from the SPC as follows....


1447
75
ONAWA
MONONA
IA
4203
9609
HAIL UP TO 3/4 INCH IN DIAMETER ON WEST SIDE OF TOWN (OAX)
1555
75
2 S BUCKLIN
LINN
MO
3975
9289
DIME SIZE HAIL AT US36 MO129. (EAX)
1736
88
1 WSW EDGEWOOD
DELAWARE
IA
4264
9142
(DVN)
1831
75
HANOVER
JO DAVIESS
IL
4225
9028
(DVN)
1838
100
WEST DES MOINES
POLK
IA
4157
9375
(DMX)
1854
88
DUNDEE
DELAWARE
IA
4258
9155
JUST NORTHEAST OF DUNDEE (DVN)
1858
88
2 SSW WEST DES MOINES
POLK
IA
4154
9378
COVERING THE GROUND AND ROAD AT I-35 AND GRAND AVE. (DMX)
1900
88
EDGEWOOD
CLAYTON
IA
4265
9140
(ARX)
1910
75
7 SE DARLINGTON
LAFAYETTE
WI
4261
9002
(MKX)
1915
100
2 S GARRISON
BENTON
IA
4211
9214
TIME ESTIMATED. (DVN)
1924
88
3 SE EXLINE
APPANOOSE
IA
4062
9280
(DMX

This is as of 5:50 pm.

Issue #5

As I said yesterday, Looks as this weekend we could have some server weather in the south. Well this morning I checked out the Stotm Prediction Center, and Saturday looks as it it will be in the Eastern Ten Ala and into Ga area.. As for the snow for the northeast. That's still a gimmy. GFS Is still calling for snow early next week. Our local Mets are saying Rain. It will all break down to the temps. I will be watching this all throughout the day and the rest of the week.

As for right now? another beautiful day here on the NJ Shore. as of 11:00am 40 Degrees light winds from the NNW less than 10 MPH.

4:25 pm From what I see now, looking as things could start picking up tomarrow Tomarrow from what I can tell, there will be a chance of server weather in Northern Ark Western Tenn and into Most of Mo. Also Parts of Easter Oka as well. Then Friday moving into North Ala North Miss and into Central Tenn.. The big threat still looks as it will be Saturday. This threat will be in Ala Tenn and into Ga from what it looks now.

I will be a watching all this

be safe all.

Issue #4

a beautiful 37 degrees here on the new jersey shore today. Bright and sunny but very windy. Hard to believe here in just a few short weeks we will be wishing for days like this. Had a look at the GFS last night and looks as the Tenn Vally will be under the gun later in the week for server weather. Wait and see I guess. Models can be wrong. I will update everyone here and on twitter if anything happends.

Well just call me Go cart mosart cuz I just checked my weather charts, and here is the scoop.
Looking now as Saturday will be very Wet in the southern US. GFS is putting heavy rain from Eastern Tenn into Ala and Ga. As for Server weather? Still too early to call as of now. SPC is not saying anything as of yet on this. As I said before Models can be wrong when this far out.

The GFS is also saying some Snow for New Jersey long about Monday or Tuesday. I will be watching all of this close to see what will be happening. If anything happends as I said I will post it here and on my twitter http://www.twitter.com/echoofthunder and also on my site http://www.echoofthunder.com.

Issue #3

Well just signed in and saw onl 98 more days until hurricane season starts. It should be a wild one I have to say. May even start a little early. Let's hope not though. Other than that it looks to be a quiet day weather wise. that Clipper has left the country dumping a lot of snow from Mich to maine. Thank god we did not see any.

Now to go look and see if anything is comming that could amount to anything. Kinda doubt it. I hope.

Please sign this Patition. NOAA Weather Radio Coupon Bill. It could save a life. Maybe your own.

http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/NOAAWxRadioCoupon/

Issue #2

A very messy day here in NJ. as of 1:25pm temp of 43F with drizzle. I have reset the site back to wrbn.net since it looks as things have calmed down in the northeast with this so called clipper. I am watching however the system comming into the west coast. May get a little interesting mid week as it has for the last 2 week. We will have to just wait and see what happends. 5:00 PM Eastern Standard time we had a burst of snow. nothing big but was pretty. most likely our last one of the season.

Issue #1

Well this is the 1st installment of Echo Of Thunder weather blogs. Echo Of Thunder was formed in November of 2007 for the love of weather and all of it's furry. Our site www.echoofthunder.com you may find helpful. We have links for weather throughout the world. It is always changing as we get new link. Also there is a forum for everyone.

We hope you will drop by and stay awhile as enjoy the weather